A proprietary advanced geopolitical risk indicator, designed to precede major moves in VIX, sovereign CDS spreads and other market stress measures (MOVE, EMBI, etc.) by 30 to 45 days on average.
92%
Correlation with sovereign CDS spreads (5Y)
30-45 d
lead on major VIX spikes
p < 0.001
Granger causality test – 95% CI
🔮 Why choose Global Risk Predictor?
Detection 14 months before the crisis
Our algorithm identifies weak signals with an average 14-month lead time.
92% accuracy
Validated on 500 French companies over the last 3 years.
Exclusive Kill Switch
Decision-making protection for investors.
Subscription plans
Essential
€5,000 /month
Data feed for 10 major countries
Daily update
Ideal for: family offices, small hedge funds
Professional Recommended
€12,000 /month
Data feed for 30 countries
Customizable alerts
Ideal for: macro hedge funds, volatility desks
Enterprise
On quote
All countries / raw feeds
Assisted integration
Ideal for: major banks, insurers, systemic funds
About Us
Discover Global Risk Predictor, your expert partner in predictive financial risk analysis
Our mission
At Global Risk Predictor, we transform complex financial data into actionable insights. Our innovative platform enables companies to anticipate risks, optimize investments and make informed decisions for a safer financial future.
Our story
Founded in 2020, Global Risk Predictor was born from a simple observation: traditional financial analysis tools are no longer sufficient in an increasingly complex and interconnected economic world.
Our expertise combines artificial intelligence and sector knowledge to deliver reliable, personalized predictions.
Discover our specialized resilience and default risk analysis tools for each industry
Technology Sector
Technological resilience analysis
Assess the financial health of tech companies with tailored indicators: R&D, revenue growth, burn rate, valuation...
Industry Sector
Score and default probability
Analysis of industrial companies focusing on inventory turnover, working capital, capital intensity and production cycles.
Healthcare Sector
Healthcare financial assessment
Specialized simulator for healthcare facilities, laboratories and biotech companies with specific regulatory indicators.
Services Sector
Probability and default analysis
Assess service companies with specific indicators: customer retention rate, operating margin, billing cycle...
Construction Sector
Construction sector analysis
Simulator tailored for construction companies with key indicators: project progress, guarantees, sector payment terms...
Retail Sector
Retail sector analysis
Assess retailers with specific indicators: inventory turnover, commercial margin, sales area, revenue/m²...
Our exclusive technology
Confidential algorithms: We have created an exclusive model for each sector that combines multiple financial and statistical approaches to anticipate failures.
Multidimensional analysis: Our algorithms analyze thousands of combinations of ratios, margins, customer delays, etc.
Accurate results: Assignment of a risk score with a 92% success rate.
Full access: 6 sector simulators included, unlimited access.
Security & GDPR compliance: French hosting, compliance with confidentiality standards.
Dashboards
Overview and real-time analysis of your investment portfolios
Family Office Dashboard
Complete monitoring of your family wealth
78%
Average Resilience Score
12%
Average Default Probability
3
Active Alerts
15
Monitored Assets
Holdings Overview
Asset
Sector
Resilience Score
Default Prob.
Status
TechInnov SAS
Technology
85%
8%
Stable
Manufacture Dupont
Industry
72%
15%
Watch
BioHealth Labs
Healthcare
91%
5%
Excellent
Private Equity Dashboard
Strategic analysis and performance tracking
82%
Portfolio Resilience Score
18%
High Risk Exposure
5
Identified Opportunities
24%
Performance vs Benchmark
Fund Holdings Analysis
Fund
Value (€M)
Score
Default Prob.
PE Fund I - TechStart
45.2
88%
9%
PE Fund II - Industrial
62.8
75%
16%
PE Fund III - HealthTech
38.5
92%
4%
Case Studies
Discover how Global Risk Predictor anticipates failures and visualizes risks in real-world conditions
Groupe Casino
Pre-bankruptcy simulation 2022 – detection 16 months before the safeguard procedure.
View demo
Midcap Default 2024
Retrospective analysis of 10 midcap companies – average detection 14 months before default.
View demo
GRI Signal – 5 countries
Interactive dashboard of the GRI indicator over 30 days for France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK.
View demo
Family Office Dashboard
Consolidated view of holdings, heatmap, actionable alerts and timeline evolution.
View demo
Private Equity Dashboard
Portfolio monitoring, TVPI, MOIC, down round alerts and exit horizon for PE funds.
View demo
Kill Switch in Action
Portfolio monitoring, weak signal detection and real-time actionable alerts.
View demo
Our approach
Real data
Cases are built from public financial data (2022-2024) and sector ratios.
Predictive model
Resilience score and default probability calculated with our proprietary algorithm (92% accuracy).
Early detection
Highlighting the anticipation of weak signals up to 18 months before the event.
The Resilience Score measures your company's ability to withstand economic shocks and adapt to difficulties. It assesses your financial robustness, adaptability and rebound potential on a scale of 0% (very low) to 100% (excellent).
How is the Default Probability calculated?
The Default Probability is calculated from the analysis of multiple financial indicators, including debt level, fixed costs, financial imbalances and sector-specific factors. Our proprietary algorithm integrates this data to estimate the risk that your company may no longer meet its obligations within the next 12 months.
What is the What-If module?
The What-If module is our strategic simulation tool that allows you to virtually test your decisions before implementing them. You can simulate the impact of different scenarios (DSO reduction, margin increase, investment, etc.) on your resilience score and default probability.
What is Momentum?
Momentum measures the acceleration or deceleration of your resilience score. It is calculated as the second derivative of the score over three periods: Momentum = (Score N − Score N-1) − (Score N-1 − Score N-2). A positive momentum signals accelerating improvement; a negative momentum indicates accelerating deterioration. It is an early indicator that detects trajectory changes before they become visible in traditional ratios.
What is GRI Signal Service?
GRI Signal Service is a proprietary advanced geopolitical risk indicator, designed to precede major moves in VIX, sovereign CDS spreads and other market stress measures by 30 to 45 days on average. It covers 30 countries, offers customizable alerts, and integrates via API into your models. Backtested over 120 months with high statistical accuracy (p<0.001), it provides true additive alpha for investors.
What is Kill Switch and why is it different?
Kill Switch is a decision-making safety device, not an analysis tool. It detects non-financial risks before they appear in financial statements, creating an advanced due diligence trail. "Kill Switch does not prevent failure. It prevents invisible failure."
How accurate are your predictions?
Our predictive intelligence technology offers 92% accuracy in financial risk assessment, validated on a sample of 500 French companies over the last 3 years.
How do I choose the right plan for my needs?
For SMEs/Startups: the Essential plan (€2,490/year). For mid-sized companies and consulting firms: the Business plan (€7,900/year). For large groups: the Enterprise plan (€15,900/year). For investors: Kill Switch offers (€25,000 to €75,000/year). Contact us for a free diagnosis.